I see where you're coming from.

The only thing I would add is that your argument 
about disposable income needing time to recharge 
is based on the assumption that a limited group of 
people are buying cels.  True, die-hard fans make 
up the bulk of purchases, but there is always new 
blood (with new income) coming in.

I've thought about why it is more of a buyer's 
market right now (seems like everybody is dumping 
cels for cheap).  I don't have a clear answer.  
And I can't really blame it on dealer's prices.  
Those prices are based (roughly) on demand, and I 
think we are seeing an overall decline in that 
demand.
1) Lack of new blood.  LOTS of new fans were 
brought on board by Cartoon Network in the last 
couple of years.  Any that were interested in cels 
have most likely already found there way into the 
market.
2) After 9/11, the economy has been in a slump.  
Many, many people are out of work or making less. 
 So luxury items like these are the first to go.

Who knows where it will lead?

I guess if I was a dealer, I would start all of my 
cels out priced high.  Then I would have a regular 
wave of discounts.  You know.  Like 5% off after a 
month, 10% off after two months, etc.  When it 
hits a good price, it will go.  If anybody 
desperately wants it, they can snatch it early.  
If not, they can wait and take their chances.  ;-)

Assuming, of course, that I had a regular supply 
coming in.  If not, then it would make sense to 
mark it high and let it sit for a while.  
Eventually, that one fan will come along and 
snatch it up, thinking it is a wonderful bargain!

Oy.  All this talk about pricey cels makes me want 
to avoid all updates and just pore over my own 
collection at home.  LOL.

JP