Sorry, this is long. If you like brain puzzlers,
read on.
1) I used Wizard as an example. Bad example, for
reasons which Tanaka points out.
2) This will likely be unsound. Statsitically,
true. Practically, maybe not. Why? Even just a
handful of opinions about cels from a specific
show could give new folks a good foothold. For
example, WebDeb's opinions on Escaflowne are
priceless to the new Esca collector. Ranges will
be large for both rarity and -- the bad word --
price. Amazon's user reviews are pretty
statistically unsound, yet a lot of people use
those short reviews to help them make decisions.
3) I'll avoiding price fixing right now by saying
that RSlug is NOT the final word on rarity or
anything. It's just a starter guide, but I'm sure
you probably have heard "where can I find good
cels from (xxx)" and "is this okay (link)?" more
times than you can count.
3) I can't make two language sets without serious
help. (I just want to say, as a programmer, I am
extremely impressed with Anime Taro's site for
doing so.) Plus, a lot of Japanese collectors
would have to give opinions to be valid.
Art is priced based on art auctions and museum
purchases, if I'm not mistaken. As cel
collectors, we can determine how much we've spent
on cels and how long we've been looking for
certain things to get a VERY rough estimate. Art
auctions are inflated. Our index will likely also
be inflated, but we're expecting it to be. All
opinions will be qualified by a short blurb. No
one will be allowed to splurt out numbers without
justification.
** The desired net result? **
Someone looking at our catalogue will be able to
determine that BGC2040 is a bit easier to find
than Escaflowne is a bit easier to find than
Lodoss OVA -- in the US. We can't get too
specific and/or generalize to world population
because you're right, it *is* statistically
unsound.
A confidence factor will be associated with each
show. If a show has more opinions, confidence
factor increases. I can't think of a fair way to
do the exact math right now. If one of you can,
then e-mail me. You're right about that too, most
shows will have opinions from only a few people
or none at all.
Finally, I will not give any opinions myself. I'd
love to flesh out the db, but I'm sure it's going
to come out that I'm making up stuff to fill my
own db. I want to stay as neutral/fair as
possible. I will start going through and listing
all the series that are CG I can find though.
Tanaka, you could probably teach me a thing or
two about statistics. (You seem like you know
more about what you're talking about that I do)
If you can think of a good way to achieve the
goal -- a good starting point for cel
availability -- then let me know. Until then,
I'll be waiting patiently to take a look at your
cel gallery. Don't forget, if you need any help
from me, drop me a line.
Cheers,
Jason |